The Southern Transitional Council promotes itself to obtain recognition of international legitimacy from the gate of Israel, but for several considerations, it will not be more than an indirect ally of Israel.
On February 2, 2021, the head of the Southern Transitional Council, Aidaroos Al-Zubaidi, announced his blessing for Emirati normalization with Israel, and expressed his desire for normalization in the event that southern Yemen gained independence and was recognized as an independent state. This position not only threatens Yemeni unity between the north and the south, but also threatens the division of southern Yemen into states and sultanates, because it was not issued by a recognized political system. The southern geography is a state of division, instability, and multiple loyalties, as there is no single leader or specific political entity that represents the majority of the people of the south or holds the reins in the southern governorates. In the event that this statement follows more daring steps, it will hit, in the first place, what is known as the southern issue, which is summarized in the idea of separating southern Yemen from its north and establishing an independent state. A number of local challenges and external interference, from the danger of division, especially since the map of southern Yemen has a long experience in the sultanate system and still has roots and effects to this day.
This statement was not surprising for the Yemenis, due to previous insinuations and hints issued by leaders in the Transitional Council, including what was stated by the Vice-President of the Transitional Council, Hani Bin Brik, on several occasions. Also, the Transitional Council, according to the circumstances of its inception and the fingerprints of its establishment, is considered the illegitimate son of the UAE, and it is not surprising that its compass moves according to the policies and directions of Abu Dhabi, even in the matter of normalization. In addition, the Israelis played an indirect role in forming and organizing the security belts of the Transitional Council when it was established in 2016, through the UAE hiring retired Israeli officers from foreign security companies, to train leaders from the security belts in Abu Dhabi. Dozens of assassinations targeting opponents of the UAE and the Transitional Council in Aden governorate were carried out through the UAE contracting with Israelis working for foreign companies, such as the American security company "Spire Operation", including the former leader of the assassination program in the mercenary squad, Abraham Golan. Nevertheless, Al-Zubaidi's statement was met with almost unanimous rejection by most of the active and influential southern powers, including the components that agree with him on the issue of secession, most notably the Southern Revolutionary Movement Council, which is led by Hassan Baoum, and the non-separatist components such as the Southern Yemeni National Salvation Council, in addition to the demonstrations that took place. I went out in most of the southern governorates to denounce and reject these statements.
The Southern Transitional Council was established in Aden, southern Yemen, in May 2017 by political, military and tribal officials, headed by Aidaroos Al-Zubaidi, with direct support from the UAE. The transitional council calls for the secession of southern Yemen and a return to before the re-establishment of Yemeni unity between the north and the south in 1990. On its way to secession, in April 2020 it declared autonomy in the southern governorates, but it accepted the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement with its last mechanism on December 26. , which stipulated in its most prominent clauses the abdication of the Autonomous Administration, the division of the government, which includes 24 ministers between the north and the south, and the participation of the Transitional Council in the government delegation for the consultations of the Yemeni political solution. Nevertheless, the Transitional Council is still maneuvering in violation of its commitments to the Riyadh Agreement, and is threatening secession on more than one occasion.
Some regional and international parties deal with the Transitional Council as moving under the Emirati umbrella, and controlling, with direct Emirati support, some vital areas in southern Yemen, most notably the interim capital of Aden and the island of Socotra, but this dealing is nothing more than an exploitation of the fragile Yemeni situation and benefiting from it, not With the aim of establishing diplomatic relations or building strategic interests, for several reasons: including the transitional council’s failure to represent all the southern components, even those that agree with it in the idea of secession, as well as its modest presence on the ground, which does not exceed 10 percent of the area of southern Yemen, and such The complications do not qualify him to present himself as the legitimate or sole representative of southern Yemen, and therefore it is impossible, or at least difficult, for him to be recognized and for his hoped-for state in southern Yemen.
Returning to the Transitional Council's flirtation with Israel and its offer of normalization with it, it was noted that the Israeli side was not welcomed, celebrated, or even commented, due to its realization that Yemen's situation now is all fragile and temporary. As for the United States of America, it is not likely, at the present time or in the near future, that it will sponsor a normalization project between Israel and the Southern Transitional Council, especially since this normalization will not be with an independent state or with a legitimate government. Also, the issue of normalization does not seem as important as the regional conflict to the new US administration, which was evident in its priorities through its first steps, such as the truce with Iran, sending a special envoy to Yemen, and removing the "Ansar Allah" group (Houthis) from the list of terrorism, as What it cares about is finding an appropriate political recipe to end this regional conflict, or at least to slow it down so that it can devote itself to facing international challenges that it deems to be bigger and more important. On the one hand, it seems, through many indications, that what matters most to the Biden administration is ending the war, which has a high humanitarian cost, and playing a major role in making peace in this country. The Yemeni situation, with the continuation of the war, may have repercussions far beyond Yemen itself, affecting the security and stability of its surroundings, which are crowded with American interests.
The Transitional Council believed that by welcoming normalization with Israel, it would grant it a state